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Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles preview, prediction: in writing

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles preview, prediction: in writing

A breakdown that is statistical of Lions’ Week 3 matchup.

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The Detroit Lions together with Philadelphia Eagles are as close to 2-0 because they are to 0-2. Both groups discovered themselves trailing in every one of their first couple of games, and both been employed by their solution to perhaps the rating. For the Eagles, their heroic comeback on Sunday evening had been ruined by a large protective gaffe in the last couple of minutes. Meanwhile, the Lions’ blew a 18-point lead against the Cardinals and might only muster a tie after that.

Both groups have strive to do in order to eclipse the present undefeated groups atop their particular divisions, but both undoubtedly desire to be within the playoff battle come December. This means this game could truly involve some severe implications for tiebreakers—assuming, within the Lions instance, that another playoff contender includes a tie.

So who’s got the advantage on Sunday? Let’s look in the matchup. In Writing.

Lions pass offense (22nd in DVOA in 2018) vs. Eagles pass protection (fifteenth)

This year’s DVOA: Lions (8th) vs. Eagles (23rd)

This is our last week we just simply just take 2018 data under consideration. A year ago, the Lions moving offense began strong, but following the trade of Golden Tate additionally the problems for Marvin Jones, things quickly dropped aside.

This season, things turn to be brighter for Matthew Stafford and business, particularly under brand brand new unpleasant coordinator Darrell Bevell. Stafford was particularly proficient at play action:

One big section of the #Lions moving game? The play-action pass. Matthew Stafford is 16-of-21 off play fakes thus far this 12 months through two games. Expect you’ll see a lot more than a number of most of these playcalls from #OnePride on Sunday. It really is a part that is big of they are doing. #DETvsPHI

The Lions were proficient at distributing the ball around, too. Six various players have actually at minimum four catches through two games and four various receivers have actually touchdowns. In comparison, zero Bears players have actually caught a touchdown (sorry, couldn’t assist myself.)

Currently, the Lions rank 10th in passer score (102.6), t-eighth in yards per effort (8.4) and so are seventeenth in conclusion portion (65.3). They’ve been especially great at getting amount plays through the fresh air, with 11 performs for 20+ yards (t-third) and have now just permitted three sacks (t-eighth).

This past year, the Eagles pass protection ended up being pretty typical, though they recovered quite nicely within the second half of this season—a pattern that may emerge using this 2018 Eagles group.

This present year, they’re down to a different sluggish begin. The rest of the raw data should be somewhat unsettling for Eagles fans though they created a few turnovers last week against the Falcons. They’re passer that is currently 20th allowed (98.8), t-21st in yards per effort (8.0) and sixteenth in conclusion portion (65.5).

Despite Jim Schwartz’s aggressive protection, the Eagles have just handled two sacks regarding the years, but they’re still truly with the capacity of producing force.

Golladay had their breakout game of the season a week ago against an extremely skilled cornerback in Casey Hayward Jr. An eight-catch, 117-yard performance is impressive, but doing it against a good young part is a complete level that is different. Ronald Darby, too, can be a corner that is impressive but he’s down to a horrible begin to 2019. Can it be merely a sluggish begin or perhaps is Darby still experiencing the effects of their torn ACL from 2018? Time will tell.

Advantage: Lions +1.5

Protection will undoubtedly be key right right right here, as Brandon Graham is certainly another player that may impact this matchup greatly. We’re nevertheless unsure just who may be playing remaining tackle this week as Taylor Decker remains restricted in training. A week ago, their replacement, Tyrell Crosby, did an excellent task in security, as well as the Lions unpleasant line, overall, rebounded in a large method.

To date, Bevell has appeared the component as a good unpleasant coordinator, together with Lions’ passing game appears revitalized. Going against a beat-up, mediocre-at-best Philly additional, we have medium confidence the Lions should win this matchup.

Lions run offense (25th) vs. Eagles operate defense (9th)

This year’s DVOA: Lions (28th) vs. Eagles (2nd)

The Lions happen operating the ball a complete great deal, but they’ve been anything but efficient with those runs—and that fits precisely what we saw for the almost all of the 2018 period. Because of this, the Lions are frantically shuffling their backfield. They’ve currently cut veteran C.J. Anderson (16 carries, 43 yards) and included J.D. McKissic and Paul Perkins because the roster that is initial set.

The Lions’ inside offensive linemen appear become doing their work acceptably, but Detroit has really struggled to block regarding the sides, and therefore includes rough play from their newly-transformed end room that is tight. When they can fall lined up, we’re able to finally see Kerryon Johnson perform during the amounts he did this past year, but to date it’s been slim pickings.

Detroit is averaging simply 3.5 yards per carry (t-25th) and it is presently making downs that are first a measly 18.3 per cent of carries (24th). The Lions are certainly one of 12 teams with no rush of 20+ yards.

The Eagles operate protection had been a top-10 product final 12 months, in addition they can be better yet this season. They’re currently fourth in yards per carry allowed (2.8), 3rd in yards permitted (85) and first in first down percentage (10.0%).

The reason that is only doubt this unit may be the present lack of protective tackle Timmy Jernigan. Combined with lack of Malik Jackson to IR, the Eagles are right down to their 4th sequence protective tackle.

Nevertheless the Eagles continue to have.

Player to view: Fletcher Cox.

While Cox is many known for their ability and quickness to hurry the passer, he’s no slouch being a run defender, either. Exactly the same really can be stated for Brandon Graham, too. That protective front side is nevertheless really great for Philly, despite having the injuries.

Advantage: Eagles +2.5.

There was some small hope that the Lions could possibly get straight right back on course this week. It certainly appears like for each run they’re simply a few inches away from breaking down a large one. Furthermore, the problems for Jernigan will impact the game certainly.

Nevertheless, the amount that is overwhelming of proof points for this being truly a matchup greatly within the benefit regarding the Eagles. That won’t stop the Lions from wanting to run the ball, but i’dn’t expect this to function as week that Kerryon Johnson breaks out.

Eagles pass offense (11th) vs. Lions pass protection (31st)

This year’s DVOA: Eagles (10th) vs. Lions (10th)

Whether it was Carson Wentz or Nick Foles, the Eagles had not a problem tossing on fools a year ago. This present year, it seems to be much more of the identical, although the other day had been truly a data point that is interesting.

Using one hand, the Eagles needed to cope with unexpected accidents to DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert and Alshon Jeffery, seriously changing their idea up against the Falcons. They plainly played far better in the half that is second the initial.

Having said that, Wentz made some terrible errors at the beginning of that game, plus the Eagles’ pass protection seemed extremely shaky against an admittedly impressive atlanta front side.

The Eagles will definitely be shorthanded using their unpleasant weapons this week—with their top two receivers most most likely for it this time out—but they will have had a full week to prepare.

Detroit’s offseason want to turn their pass defense around seems to have worked to date. Though on occasion the Cardinals and Chargers was in a position to pick apart the additional, when it comes to many component, the Lions have won those matchups.

As a result of play that is solid number 2 cornerback Rashaan Melvin (he leads the league with five pass breakups) and some dazzling performs through the Lions’ playmakers (Darius Slay, Tracy Walker), the Lions pass protection presently ranks eighth in passer score allowed (74.4), 13th in yards per effort (6.7) and t-fourth in conclusion portion allowed (55.6).